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GCR Reaffirms MTN Nigeria’s Top-Tier National Ratings
GCR Ratings has affirmed the national scale long-term and short-term issuer ratings of AAA(NG) and A1+(NG), respectively, for MTN Nigeria Communications Plc.
RELATED: MTN Nigeria powers MTN Group Q1 2025 growth as data and fintech drive strong revenue expansion
The rating agency also reaffirmed the AAA(NG) national scale long-term issue rating on all of the company’s outstanding senior unsecured bond issuances. The outlook on the ratings remains stable.
According to GCR, the affirmation reflects MTN Nigeria’s strong earnings recovery, improved cash flow generation, and enhanced leverage and liquidity metrics.
Earnings Recovery Strengthens Credit Profile
GCR analysts noted that MTN Nigeria’s improved financial performance has been underpinned by resilient demand, consistent network investments, and stronger operational efficiency. These factors have reinforced the company’s already strong business profile, supported by extensive network infrastructure and a dominant market position.
MTN Nigeria remains the country’s largest telecommunications provider, leveraging its nationwide footprint and large subscriber base to maintain competitive strength despite intense sector competition.
Subscriber Growth and Market Leadership
Industry data published by the regulator shows that MTN Nigeria’s active subscriber base rose to 95.8 million as of March 2026, up from 90.5 million in 2024, representing 51.6% market share. Active data subscribers also increased to 53.2 million in 2025, from 47.7 million previously.
GCR also highlighted the company’s ongoing expansion of its fintech operations as a strategic lever to deepen market penetration and support financial inclusion.
Revenue Surge and Margin Recovery
MTN Nigeria recorded robust revenue of ₦5.2 trillion in 2025, up sharply from ₦3.4 trillion in 2024, driven largely by a 50% tariff increase, strong commercial execution, and improved performance across its product portfolio.
EBITDA margins rebounded significantly to 52.8% in 2025, from 39.1% in 2024, as operating efficiencies improved and the impact of inflation and foreign-currency exposure on tower leases and other USD-denominated costs moderated.
GCR expects revenue growth of 15%–20% in 2026 and 2027, with margins sustained above 50%, supported by continued cost-control measures.
Deleveraging Improves Balance Sheet Strength
Following the repayment of foreign-currency loans and maturing facilities, MTN Nigeria’s total debt (excluding lease liabilities) declined to ₦377.7 billion in March 2026, down from ₦527.7 billion in March 2025 and ₦972.9 billion in 2024.
Although lease liabilities remained relatively stable at around ₦2.3 trillion, aided by a more stable FX environment and renegotiated tower contracts, gross debt reduced to ₦2.8 trillion in March 2026, from ₦3.3 trillion in 2024.
As a result, net debt-to-EBITDA improved markedly, falling below 1x in 2025 and Q1 2026, compared with 2.2x in 2024.
Strong Cash Flow and Liquidity Position
Operating cash flow coverage of debt increased to 114% in March 2026, from 80.2% in 2025, while net interest coverage improved to 5.8x in 2025 and 6.9x in March 2026.
GCR described MTN Nigeria’s liquidity profile as slightly positive to the ratings, supported by robust operating cash flows, sizable cash holdings, and a longer debt maturity profile. While capital expenditure is expected to remain elevated, it is projected to be adequately covered by operating cash flow.
Dividend payments have also resumed following the company’s return to profitability, with liquidity sources-to-uses coverage estimated at 1.6x to December 2026 and 1.3x to December 2027.
Group Support and Bond Programme Compliance
GCR factored in support from MTN Group, noting MTN Nigeria’s strategic importance to the parent company. MTN Nigeria contributed 28.7% of group revenue in 2025, up from 23.1% in 2024, underscoring its growing significance within the group.
Over the past three years, MTN Nigeria has raised ₦315 billion in bonds under two separate ₦200 billion programmes. GCR confirmed that the company has complied with all payment obligations under the trust deeds, with the senior unsecured bonds ranking pari passu with other unsecured obligations.
Stable Outlook Maintained
“The stable outlook reflects our expectation that MTN Nigeria will sustain robust earnings and cash flows that underpin strong leverage metrics and sound liquidity,” GCR said.
It added that group support through financial management and technology transfer further strengthens the credit profile.
