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- Acknowledging the relative resilience of the global economy amid turbulence, 53% of chief economists surveyed expect global economic conditions to weaken in the year ahead, down from 72% in September 2025.
- Uncertainty around technology remains high, with 52% expecting AI-related stocks to decline and 40% expecting gains. On growth, expectations diverge by region, with economists expecting strong momentum in South Asia and East Asia and weak to moderate growth in Europe.
- On macroeconomics, nearly a third of respondents are concerned about sovereign debt crises in advanced economies and nearly half in emerging economies; over 60% expect governments to rely on higher inflation and tax revenues to manage elevated debt.
The latest World Economic Forum Chief Economists’ Outlook reports a modestly improved but highly uncertain global economic forecast for 2026.
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While only 53% of chief economists now expect weakening conditions—down from 72% in late 2025—the convergence of soaring AI investment, critical debt levels, and shifting trade alliances presents significant risks and opportunities.
AI Investment Booms Amid Divergent Stock Outlooks
Artificial intelligence is a dominant trend, with concentrated gains in AI stocks splitting economist opinions. While 40% foresee further increases, a narrow majority (52%) expect a decline in AI-related US stocks.
Crucially, 77% believe large firms (1,000+ employees) will see AI productivity gains within two years, led by the IT sector.
However, the employment outlook remains divided, with two-thirds anticipating modest job losses short-term and significant disagreement over AI’s net impact on jobs in a decade.
Sovereign Debt Approaches Critical Thresholds
Managing elevated sovereign debt has become a central policy challenge. Nearly half (47%) of economists see debt crises as likely in emerging economies in the coming year.
To manage burdens, a majority expect governments to rely on higher inflation and tax increases. Meanwhile, spending priorities are shifting: 97% anticipate rising defence budgets in advanced economies, while a majority expect declines in environmental protection spending.
Global Trade Realigns as Geopolitical Competition Grows
The global trade landscape is undergoing a significant realignment. An overwhelming 94% of economists expect more bilateral trade deals, and 69% anticipate growth in regional agreements.
US tech export restrictions to China are expected to hold or increase (91%), reflecting ongoing strategic competition. Growth expectations vary sharply by region. South Asia, led by India, is most optimistic (66% anticipate strong growth). Europe faces the weakest outlook, with 53% expecting weak growth.
- Learn more about the Chief Economists’ Outlook here. Follow the Annual Meeting 2026 here and on social media using #WEF26.
