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Mastercard’s Q2 2025 results stunned the market, with revenue up 16.8% year-on-year and growth outpacing Visa, narrowing the profitability gap despite Visa’s larger size.
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With margins near 66% and management raising full-year guidance, Mastercard is showing the kind of momentum that could reshape market leadership. In light of this, BestBrokers has published a new piece of research revealing which companies are most likely to join the $1 trillion market capitalisation club and which of the current ‘members’ will hit $4 trillion next.
Mastercard and Visa to reach $4 trillion market valuation
To find out which companies are expected to join the $1 trillion club soon, as well as which are on track to reach a $4 trillion market valuation after NVIDIA and Microsoft, the team at BestBrokers analysed the market capitalisations of the 25 most valuable global companies as of August 4th, 2025, sourced from CompaniesMarketCap.com.
Using their historical average growth rates since 2022, the team projected future valuations and estimated the time needed for each to hit the $1 trillion or $4 trillion milestones. The complete dataset can be accessed via Google Drive at the provided link.
Both Mastercard and Visa continue to jockey for leadership in the global payments space. Mastercard has strengthened its position through strategic partnerships in 2025, teaming up with Infosys to scale cross-border payments, collaborating with Gemini and Ripple on an XRP rewards credit card, and expanding its work with Circle to enable stablecoin settlements across EMEA.
These initiatives seem to be closing the gap between Mastercard and Visa, which is the largest payment card operator in the world by both market cap and revenue.
Based on our research, however, Visa remains the frontrunner in the market-cap race, projected to reach $1 trillion approximately four months ahead of Mastercard (around October 2028), if its growth over the past three years continues at the same pace.
Some key takeaways from the report
- Visa is projected to reach a $1 trillion market cap in approximately 3 years and 2 months (October 2028), ranking seventh among the top 10 companies expected to be the fastest, with an average three-year growth of 13.97%. Mastercard, with slightly faster growth at 14.10%, is set to reach the milestone four months later, placing ninth. Despite Mastercard’s higher growth rate, Visa’s larger market cap ($658.7B versus $506B) is reflected in its earlier arrival at the $1 trillion mark and its stronger overall scale in the market.
- The contest to reach $1 trillion first is between JPMorgan Chase and Oracle. JPMorgan Chase, with a market cap of $795.67 billion and a three-year growth rate of 33.39%, is projected to hit the milestone by May 2026. Oracle, demonstrating stronger short- and long-term growth, 52.87% over three years and 79.21% year-on-year, is expected to follow 7 to 10 months later, with a market cap of $686.53 billion as of August 4.
- Walmart remains on track in the race toward $1 trillion, despite its market capitalisation declining from $827.81 billion on August 11 to $767 billion on August 29. Ranking third in long-term growth with a three-year rate of 29.73%, it is projected to reach the milestone in just over 11 months. Eli Lilly, ranking fourth with a three-year growth rate of 33.42%, has seen its market cap fall from $684.37 billion on 4 August to $656.17 billion, putting a $1 trillion valuation out of reach if current trends continue.
- Palantir and Netflix delivered striking year-over-year gains in 2024/2025, rising 84.78% and 81.69%, respectively, marking them as noteworthy contenders despite more modest three-year growth rates. For Palantir, its longer-term growth trajectory would suggest a $1 trillion milestone in around three and a half years, but its recent acceleration since 2024 shortens the expected timeline to just 1 year and 7 months.
Path to $1 trillion market capitalisation
‘The path to $1 trillion market capitalisation is increasingly shaped by a combination of scale, growth trajectory, and strategic positioning rather than by size alone. Companies with steady long-term growth can maintain their lead, but those demonstrating rapid short-term acceleration or executing transformative initiatives may leapfrog projections. Market volatility and sector-specific catalysts further complicate timelines, meaning that the race to join the $1 trillion club is dynamic and multifaceted, with momentum, strategy, and adaptability playing roles as critical as raw financial performance.’
– comments Paul Hoffman from BestBrokers.com.
For this analysis, the team at BestBrokers used data from CompaniesMarketCap on the 20 most valuable publicly traded companies as of August 4, 2025. By measuring market cap growth from 2022 to 2025, they ranked firms on the time needed to reach $4 trillion if already above $1 trillion, or to hit $1 trillion if below that threshold.
More detailed insights on company market capitalisations and projections can be found in the full report. The complete dataset is available on Google Drive via the provided link.
