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By Christo de Wit, Country Manager, Luno
The first weeks of 2026 have delivered a strong signal about the crypto year ahead. Crypto markets have broadly rallied, with many assets showing price jumps of more than 10% over seven days. Bitcoin climbed above $95,000 (approximately R1.7 million) for the first time since November, while XRP led the charge with gains of around 27%. The retraction in recent days signals that the crypto market is testing the bounds of this range.
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More significant is Morgan Stanley’s announcement that it has filed for Solana and Bitcoin ETFs. After sitting on the sidelines since the launch of the first US crypto ETF in January 2024, the banking giant’s entry suggests substantial untapped institutional demand. Despite BlackRock’s IBIT becoming the fastest ETF in history to reach $80 billion in assets under management, Morgan Stanley’s proprietary wealth channels have identified enough commercial viability for a branded product.
This early momentum confirms that the fundamental question has shifted from whether crypto will integrate with traditional finance to how quickly this integration will accelerate. 2026 could be the year digital assets transition from alternative investments to essential financial infrastructure.
Institutional momentum continues
The institutional adoption wave that gained momentum in 2025 shows no signs of slowing. BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF became the third-highest revenue-generating fund in the asset manager’s portfolio of over 1,000 ETFs in under two years. BlackRock also tokenised US bonds on Ethereum, while banks explored issuing their own stablecoins.
Locally, integration of crypto into traditional banking channels is accelerating. Following Discovery Bank’s pioneering move to integrate crypto trading directly into its mobile banking application through its partnership with Luno, other financial institutions are exploring similar offerings. JSE-listed Africa Bitcoin Corporation added Bitcoin to its balance sheet, likely leading other listed companies to evaluate similar moves.
Regulatory clarity as a catalyst
South Africa’s removal from the FATF grey list in October 2025 has positioned the country favourably for continued industry growth. A critical issue for 2026 is whether South Africa will update its regulatory framework on exchange controls. Classifying digital assets like Bitcoin as ‘onshore’ when held on licensed local platforms could unlock institutional investment and potentially generate R500 million in tax revenue.
While the United States is considering allowing Bitcoin into workplace pension plans covering over 90 million Americans, South Africa continues to debate whether collective investment funds can hold Bitcoin at all.
Internationally, the passage of the GENIUS Act established clear guidelines for stablecoin issuance, while SEC policy overhauls signal a fundamentally different regulatory environment emerging.
SARS’s crypto asset reporting framework will take effect on 1 March 2026. For consumers, fairer reporting requirements mean better certainty around tax obligations, and the new framework should simplify this process.
Tokenisation goes mainstream
Nasdaq’s proposal to the SEC to trade tokenised stocks on its exchange could make one of the world’s largest traditional exchanges a venue for blockchain-settled securities and McKinsey research estimates that by 2030, between $2 trillion and $4 trillion in assets could be tokenised and traded on-chain.
In South Africa, the introduction of over 60 tokenised US stocks and ETFs on Luno demonstrated the appeal of 24/7 trading without currency conversions. Since launching in 2025, over 27,000 customers have invested in tokenised stocks. Banks exploring the issuance of their own stablecoins will likely move from exploration to deployment, while SWIFT’s announced plans for 24/7 cross-border transfers using tokenised value signals that even institutions recognise blockchain’s efficiency gains.
Stablecoins reshape payments
Stablecoins will continue their rapid adoption trajectory throughout 2026. In African markets, where stablecoins serve practical purposes, adoption is likely to accelerate as more fiat currencies are tokenised beyond the US dollar and Euro.
Stablecoins offer crypto’s advantages (speed, low cost, borderless accessibility) while maintaining price stability, making them more suitable for everyday transactions than volatile assets like Bitcoin. For businesses, they provide a way to manage currency risk, foreign bank accounts or high forex costs. Transaction fees are significantly lower than banking rails.
Christo de Wit
Stablecoins are also playing a strategic role in the development of alternative financial infrastructure. They can provide an alternative to US dollar dominance in global trade, especially if economic groupings such as BRICS make a concerted effort to formalise and adopt their use for trade and capital flows.
Crypto payments
Since October 2025, South Africans can pay with crypto at nearly 700,000 merchants across the country using Luno Pay, including major household retailers and educational institutions.
In addition, payment providers such as Visa and Mastercard are piloting stablecoins in their back-end systems.
The path forward
The cryptocurrency industry entering 2026 looks markedly different from previous years. Integration with traditional finance has progressed from possibility to reality. The challenge for 2026 will be building on this foundation while maintaining the innovation and accessibility that made cryptocurrency compelling.
