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Across Nigeria and much of West Africa, rising connectivity metrics are often celebrated as evidence of digital progress. Mobile subscriptions continue to grow, broadband coverage is expanding, and internet penetration is steadily climbing. On the surface, these indicators suggest the region is firmly on the path to digital transformation.
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However, a closer look at the data reveals a more complex reality. Connectivity growth has not translated into broad-based digital prosperity. Millions are connected, but far fewer are economically empowered by that connectivity.
Nigeria has over 175 million active mobile subscriptions, representing a teledensity of approximately 80 percent, according to the Nigerian Communications Commission. Broadband penetration has crossed the 50 percent threshold of roughly 80 percent, according to the Nigerian Communications Commission. Broadband penetration has crossed the 50 percent threshold, and total internet users are estimated at over 140 million, based on NCC broadband and internet usage reports for 2024 and 2025. These figures place Nigeria among Africa’s largest digital markets.
Yet access alone does not ensure inclusion.
According to the GSMA, while 416 million people in Africa actively use mobile internet, approximately 960 million people, or about 64 percent of the population, do not use mobile internet despite living in areas with mobile broadband coverage. This is known as the mobile internet usage gap. It shows that availability does not automatically lead to meaningful adoption.
One of the clearest indicators of this gap is Average Revenue Per User (ARPU).
Following tariff adjustments in Nigeria, mobile operators saw some improvement in 2025. Industry data show that MTN Nigeria’s ARPU rose to approximately $3.02 per month, while Airtel Nigeria’s ARPU reached about $2.10 per month by mid-2025. Despite this increase, these figures remain far below global averages, which typically range from $10 to $15 per month in mature markets.
Low ARPU is not simply a telecom pricing issue. It signals shallow digital participation. It indicates that most users consume minimal data and low-value services such as messaging and social media, rather than high-value activities like online education, digital commerce, remote work, or enterprise platforms.
Affordability data reinforces this point. GSMA analysisshows that across Sub-Saharan Africa, the median cost of 1GB of mobile data represents about 15.3 percent of monthly GDP per capita for the poorest income quintile, far exceeding the UN Broadband Commission’s 2 percent affordability target. Even in Nigeria, where data prices are among the lowest in Africa, the average cost of 1GB is around $0.38, which remains expensive relative to disposable income for many households.
Device affordability further constrains usage. GSMA research indicates that a basic internet-enabled smartphone can cost up to 87 percent of the average monthly income for the poorest 20 percent of the population in Sub-Saharan Africa. This makes sustained, personal internet use difficult, even where networks exist.
Household economics explains much of this pattern. Research by the World Bank consistently shows that in low- and middle-income economies, households spend most of their income on essentials such as food, transportation, housing, and energy. When inflation rises, and real wages stagnate, discretionary spending contracts. Internet usage is then reduced to the bare minimum.
This is why rising data traffic volumes do not automatically translate into income growth or productivity gains. Consumption-driven connectivity does not equal economic empowerment.
The policy implication is clear. Digital inclusion policy cannot be treated as a standalone infrastructure agenda. The World Bank’s Digital Economy for Africa framework links meaningful digital adoption to income growth, skills development, and productive employment, not to access alone. Infrastructure creates possibilities, but income determines participation.
This also means that success metrics must evolve. Counting SIM cards, subscriptions, and coverage percentages is no longer sufficient. More meaningful indicators include income growth attributable to connectivity, productivity gains among small businesses, uptake of digital education platforms, and expansion of digital trade and services.
Logical Conclusion
Taken together, the statistics lead to a clear deduction.
West Africa has made significant progress in expanding connectivity. Networks now reach hundreds of millions of people, and coverage gaps are narrowing. However, economic capacity has not kept pace with infrastructure expansion.
Low ARPU, wide usage gaps, high affordability burdens, and constrained household incomes all point to the same conclusion. Connectivity alone does not deliver digital prosperity. Digital growth follows purchasing power, not the other way around.
Until household incomes rise, device and data affordability improve relative to income, and digital skills translate into productive opportunities, connectivity will remain underutilized. Therefore, the next phase of digital inclusion must integrate infrastructure policy with economic policy, education, skills development, and enterprise support.
The real question for policymakers is no longer how many people are connected, but how many lives are meaningfully improved by that connection. Only by aligning connectivity with economic empowerment can digital inclusion fulfill its promise.
Tola Yusuf PhD, PfD, MBA Founding Partner @ Infratel Africa l Ambassador AU Agenda 2063 l Digital Economy Leader l Speaker & Advocate l Rural connectivity I Green Energy l Africa
COVER PHOTO: Image credit: Getty Images
