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CardinalStone adjusts target price but maintains strong confidence
Airtel Africa Plc is positioning for an ambitious growth phase in 2026, even as market headwinds and currency movements shape investor sentiment. Lagos-based investment firm CardinalStone Securities Limited has slightly revised its target price for the telecoms giant but maintained a strong bullish outlook, citing a potential upside of 72 per cent from current levels.
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The firm adjusted its 12-month target price for Airtel Africa to N3,904.82, marginally lower than its previous estimate of N3,906.75, reflecting the impact of naira appreciation on valuation assumptions. At its current market price of N2,270, Airtel Africa remains attractively priced compared to peers across the Middle East and Africa.
Share Price Stagnation Masks Strong Fundamentals
Despite recording solid earnings growth, Airtel Africa’s share price remained largely stagnant throughout 2025, reflecting thin trading activity and a more conservative investor profile. Analysts attribute this to the company’s share buyback programme, which significantly reduced Nigerian retail participation, alongside increased share activity on the London Stock Exchange.
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) currently values Airtel Africa’s 3.758 billion outstanding shares at N8.53 trillion, about four per cent below its 52-week high.
Yet beneath the subdued market performance lies a stronger operational story.
Revenue Rebound and Shift to Data-Led Growth
According to CardinalStone’s equity research report, Airtel Africa delivered a robust rebound in its H1 2025/2026 results, driven by tariff adjustments in Nigeria, sustained subscriber growth and rising data consumption across its markets.
Group revenue rose 25.8 per cent year-on-year to $3.0 billion, reversing the 9.7 per cent contraction recorded in the previous period. Notably, data revenue overtook voice as the largest contributor to group earnings, underscoring the company’s transition to a more digital-centric business model.
“These improvements, combined with updated valuation assumptions and a lower equity risk premium, informed our forecast revisions,” CardinalStone said.
The firm highlighted declining yields on Nigeria’s 10-year Eurobond and a reduced equity risk premium as indicators of easing country risk, although naira strength moderated valuation gains.
Airtel Africa’s 2026 Strategy: Scaling Connectivity and Financial Inclusion
Looking ahead, Airtel Africa is charting a bold strategic roadmap for 2026 focused on accelerating investment, expanding digital inclusion and deepening its role in Africa’s fintech and connectivity ecosystems.
1. Network Expansion and Hybrid Connectivity
A major pillar of the 2026 agenda is the company’s partnership with SpaceX to roll out satellite-to-mobile “Direct-to-Cell” services across its 14 African markets. The initiative, scheduled to begin in 2026, will extend basic connectivity to underserved rural and remote areas where traditional infrastructure remains uneconomical.
To support this expansion, Airtel Africa has raised its capital expenditure guidance for the 2026 financial year to between $875 million and $900 million, aimed at boosting network capacity, modernising infrastructure and widening coverage. The company is also strengthening infrastructure-sharing partnerships, including agreements with operators such as Vodacom, to improve efficiency and reduce rollout costs.
2. Airtel Money and the Push for a Fintech IPO
Financial services remain central to Airtel Africa’s growth ambitions. A key focus for early 2026 is the potential Initial Public Offering (IPO) of its mobile money arm, Airtel Money, as the company seeks to capitalise on Africa’s fast-growing digital payments market.
With its mobile money customer base approaching 50 million users, and data revenues surpassing voice for the first time in H1 2026, Airtel Africa is consolidating its position as a major player in digital financial services across the continent.
3. Digital Skills and Social Impact
Beyond commercial expansion, Airtel Africa is reinforcing its commitment to social impact through the Airtel Africa Foundation. In 2026, the company plans to scale access to STEM education by offering fully funded scholarships for undergraduate technology students in markets such as Nigeria and Uganda.
The foundation also aims to train 26,000 young people and connect 300 additional schools to the internet by the end of FY 2026, advancing its long-term goal of positively impacting 10 million lives by 2030.
Analysts See Compelling Long-Term Value
Despite the modest downward revision to its price target, CardinalStone maintains that Airtel Africa remains significantly undervalued relative to regional peers, reinforcing its appeal to long-term investors.
“The adjustment reflects our continued confidence in Airtel Africa’s near-term growth trajectory, improved valuation metrics and strategic positioning for Africa’s digital future,” the firm said.
As the company enters 2026 with a sharper focus on network investment, fintech expansion and digital inclusion, Airtel Africa appears set to deepen its footprint across the continent—turning today’s market headwinds into tomorrow’s growth opportunities.
